Right off the bat, I have to make a disclaimer: I am a diehard Boston Red Sox fan. One reason I get as revved up for baseball season as I do is because I know that going into each year, my team has a legitimate chance to win the World Series. I am aware that most fans in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Washington, San Diego, Baltimore, etc. do not share this hope—and, let’s face it, realistically so. But I propose that even if I were a fan of one of these teams, I would still feel an excitement start to build within me as March turns to April and the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season starts. The great thing about new seasons is that everyone—from Pittsburgh and Kansas City to the often-hated Red Sox and Yankees—is 0-0. And despite the constant complaints that every year, the same teams always finish on top, there are in fact surprises with every new season—look no further than the Colorado Rockies of 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays of 2008, or the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners last season.

To avoid complete homerism, I’ll start my “season preview” by examining the National League. The East division I believe is Philadelphia’s to lose. I love their acquisition of Roy Halladay—one of the most durable, reliable pitchers of this decade—and pitching to weaker offenses will only help further cement his legacy. (A note on this: I said that the NL has weaker offenses—not that it is a weaker league. This certainly was true a few years ago, but over the past couple seasons the NL has continued to gain ground on the American League. But there’s no denying that when you replace a designated hitter—who typically helps to anchor a lineup with 20+ home runs—with a pitcher—who considers a successful sacrifice bunt a good at-bat—it significantly affects the structure of the entire batting order). What I don’t love is the fact that they gave up Cliff Lee, last year’s ace, to get him. The rationale was that they couldn’t afford to re-sign Lee at the end of the year anyways, but why not go for broke and enter the season with a starting rotation of Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels (who will bounce back after a disappointing 2009 season), J.A. Happ (the most consistent starter Philly had for much of last year, before acquiring Lee), and Joe Blanton (a very underrated innings-eater)? Their lineup is in its prime now, and in another couple years, the prospects they acquired for Lee won’t be playing with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins at the top of their games. Philly fans don’t want to hear it, but their window is closing, and they aren’t in a position to sacrifice the present for the future. Despite wondering what could have been, I don’t see any challengers to the Phillies in the East.

The Atlanta Braves have been a trendy pick to unseat the Phils the past couple of years, but what exactly is that based on? The past couple years, they’ve dealt with injuries to their pitchers and a mediocre offense, and did nothing this offseason to change that—and I don’t count the trade for Melky Cabrera. Chipper Jones is aging, and wonderboy prospect Jason Heyward isn’t quite ready to win a Triple Crown just yet. If their pitchers stay healthy, they definitely could contend. But when before the season starts, one of their top starters, Jair Jurrjens, complains of shoulder discomfort, that’s never a good sign. The Marlins could hang in the race for a while (and possibly steal the NL Wild Card), but when you compare their youth with the Phillies’ experience in clutch games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fade come September. The Mets are an interesting case, as their roster consists of some of the top talents in baseball, and they added yet another piece this offseason in Jason Bay. The trouble with them, though, is that beneath the top 7-10, their roster consists of players barely qualified to play in the major leagues. Luis Castillo? Fernando Tatis? Kelvim Escobar? These are veterans lucky to still have jobs, not pieces you can count on for a playoff run. Furthermore, the vibe around this team has been bad for the past several years—and it feels like this might be the year that things finally blow up for New York’s “other” team. As for the Washington Nationals, the casual fan probably couldn’t even name five players on their roster—aside from the inevitable Stephen Strasburg sighting, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about in DC.

In the Central Division, one addition that isn’t getting enough press is the hiring of Rudy Jaramillo as the Chicago Cubs’ hitting coach. For the past decade, Jaramillo oversaw some of the best offenses in Texas, and will inherit what on paper is a great lineup in Chicago—anchored by Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs will certainly score enough runs this year to support even an average pitching staff. The back end of the bullpen is a concern, but if they can stay healthy (which they did not do last year), the Cubs may get another chance in October at their first World Series since 1908. Last year’s champ, St. Louis, can’t be counted out as long as they have Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the lineup, and Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter leading the rotation. Despite having this last year, though, the Cards finished the season very ordinarily after a strong start. The Cincinnati Reds could be an up-and-coming team this year—but, then again, I said the same last year and they stumbled down the stretch after a hot start. If young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce can take the next step, and their starting pitchers can ever find consistency, they could be this year’s Rockies or Rays. Milwaukee looks like they are trying to descend back into irrelevance after ending a long postseason drought in 2008, Houston is in a state of perpetual confusion, and Pittsburgh is, well… after 18 straight losing seasons, I’ll believe in them when they’re in contention past Mothers’ Day.

Out West, both Colorado and San Francisco made strides forward last year and closed the gap between themselves and the Dodgers. San Francisco had the opposite problems of the Cubs—they had one of the best rotations in the league last year, led by Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain—but a truly anemic offense. The additions of Freddy Sanchez (for a full season), Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff could help to solve this problem, but the Giants still need an impact bat in the middle of their lineup. Pablo Sandoval had a nice year last year and may develop into that guy, but there’s no denying that their offseason moves didn’t give them anything close to a sure thing. Colorado proved that their 2007 World Series run wasn’t a complete fluke, but can they avoid a letdown similar to the one they suffered in 2008? The Dodgers have a fantastic nucleus of young, core position players, a strong bullpen, and, in Joe Torre, a manager who excels over the course of a long season. For those reasons, I’m picking them to stay atop the West until the Giants or Rockies prove otherwise. San Diego has some nice young talent, but they are at least a year or two away now, and could set themselves further back if they actually trade Adrian Gonzalez, the franchise’s cornerstone player who is signed (cheaply) for several more years. They surprised last year by playing respectable baseball for most of the season, though, and could build some momentum heading into 2011. Arizona has some talented young players, but for some reason hasn’t been able to put it together for the past couple years, since their surprising division title in 2007. With a healthy Brandon Webb, though, this team has the potential to surprise.

I’ll take the Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers to win their divisions, and San Francisco to sneak in as the Wild Card. Once the playoffs start, though, it becomes much more wide open—and I pick the Giants to ride the arms of Lincecum, Cain and a resurgent Barry Zito to the World Series, defeating the Phillies in an epic, seven-game NLCS, and leaving them to wish they had never given up Cliff Lee in the Halladay deal.

Related posts:

1. NFL Regular Season Wrap-Up
2. Week 11 NFL Preview
3. Week 10 NFL Preview