NFL Playoff Picture: AFC
As we enter week 14 the wild card race in both the AFC and NFC is as competitive as ever. Let’s take a close look at the race for the final two playoff positions in the AFC:
Projected top seeds:
(1) Indianapolis (12-0)
(2) San Diego (9-3)
(3) Cincinnati (9-3)
(4) New England (7-5)
As of right now Denver (8-4) and Jacksonville (7-5) own the 5th and 6th playoff seeds, respectively. I think it is safe to say that Denver will secure one of the playoff spots. But this is where things get interesting. The following teams are fighting for the 6th seed:
Pittsburgh (6-6)
Baltimore (6-6)
Miami (6-6)
N.Y. Jets (6-6)
Which of these five teams has the best chance at securing the last remaining spot? I think it will come down to the very last game of the season – when Miami and Pittsburgh face off. If you look at the strength of schedule, Jacksonville’s next 3 games are against Miami, Indianapolis, and New England. Three games they are more than capable of losing. Baltimore has an easier schedule as they play Detroit, Oakland and Chicago. Although you never know what games are easy and which are hard for the Steelers, they have an easy game against Cleveland on Thursday followed by three very tough games against Green Bay, Baltimore and Miami. As you may of noticed, Miami has one of the hardest remaining schedules of the group. They play Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Finally, the Jets face the struggling Buccaneers and Falcons, in addition to playing Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Something to keep in mind is that Indy and Cincy may be resting their starters at that point.
Looking at the schedules, Baltimore and the Jets seem to have the easiest path to playoff success. Given the Jets struggles at QB, I give the edge to the Ravens, assuming their secondary can get healthy and Flacco can manage the game.
It’s all too easy to look at the schedule and the NFL has a way of keeping things interesting. I’m predicting that the final playoff seed will come down to a week 17 game between the Steelers and Dolphins. Winner gets in. Let me explain why I chose these two.
Miami plays every team tough. They are a very consistent football team which is the key to winning. The only thing holding them back is the strength of their competition. Let’s not forget how hard these guys play every team. They are very capable of beating each team remaining on their schedule. Probably more so than any other team in the playoff race.
Pittsburgh has too much talent to continue to slump. If they can take care of business on Thursday with Cleveland and Polamalu can come back to play against Green Bay they will be back to championship form. If you have ever watched a Steelers game where Polamalu plays and when he doesn’t, you know the defense is completely different when he is gone. When he plays they are a top 5 defense who can finish games. We all know how much they struggle when he doesn’t. He creates the turnovers the Steelers are in desperate need of, especially towards the end of the game.
Who will get in – Steelers or Dolphins? I’m predicting the Dolphins in one of the more exciting week 17 games we’ve seen. Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the NFC playoff scenario. Be sure to sound off in the comments with whether or not you agree with my prognostication!
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3 Comments
I think it’s a little more complicated than this, only because New England, Miami, and the Jets are also fighting for the division crown in the AFC East. While the other 3 divisions are all but locked up, the East is up for grabs. So Pittsburgh might be fighting New England for the Wild Card if some strange things happen.
Also, don’t forget Denver’s propensity to colapse at the end of the season. Last year they were 8-4 with a 4 game lead in their division, only to lose out and miss the playoffs.
I thought about the New England situation, but they are good at finishing strong and with games against the Panthers, Bills (no offense), Jags and Texans I thought they would be able to capture the division crown.
That’s a good point about Denver, but all of that past was under Shanahan. We have no idea whether or not McDaniels will have the same effect on the team. They do have two really tough games against Indy and Philadelphia, though, so it is definitely a possibility. And Pittsburgh has a tie breaker over them.
Now it looks as if Polamalu may be out the rest of the year which would definitely jack up my prognostication http://tinyurl.com/yhoebxv
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