2nd Round Recap & 3rd Round Preview

Kyle: You wanted madness? Well you got it this year, my friends. With the first two rounds over and just about every bracket in the country busted, at this point the office pool is becoming a battle of attrition. It has been upset city so far, and if your bracket looks anything like mine, you only open it to get a laugh anymore. So far we’ve seen the #1 overall Kansas drop to #9 seed, Northern Iowa. We saw a 10 seed, St. Mary’s, plow through my Cinderella pick: Richmond and #2 Villanova. And we’ve got an Ivy League team in the sweet 16? What?

Put it this way, if your bracket isn’t covered in scratch-outs and red ink at this point, I’m amazed. You win. I think Yahoo Sports does a million-dollar prize for anyone with a perfect bracket each year. They ought to double it this year. Hell, triple it, no one picked this. I promise. Your prize money is safe, Yahoo.

Josh: I was at a wedding Saturday afternoon. What self-respecting man plans a wedding on March Madness weekend? Seriously?? A very selfish move. My eyes were glued on espn.com on my iPhone instead of the bride walking down the aisle.

I must come clean. Out of 12 people on my Yahoo tournament, I am dead last. I was destroyed this weekend, as I’m sure millions of others were. Seriously, who, beisdes Northern Iowa alumni, picked the upset? “WOW” is the only way to describe this tournament so far.

Kyle: I’m with you, unfortunately, on the bracket standings. With a whopping 89 possible points ahead of me, I’m second from the bottom in mine. Just ahead of the guy who didn’t fill out his bracket, and scores zeroes across the board. Hopefully no one took our commentary into consideration when filling out their brackets… Yeah, sorry about that. But when the overall leader on Yahoo’s top 50 has Kansas as his winner, at least you know you’re not alone.

No shortage of close games, Cinderella’s, and story lines this year. I have to say that this has been one of the most entertaining tournaments in recent memory. Which of the surprise sweet 16 entries has impressed you most?

Josh: Without a doubt it’s gotta be Northern Iowa. This is not only the biggest upset of the tournament, it’s the biggest upset in YEARS. The game they put together builds the kind of momentum that teams ride to the championship. And, not to sound like a wet blanket, I missed it because of a wedding. The open bar is all that saved me.

With one #1 seed down, what top seed do you see falling out of the tournament in this round?

Kyle: Call me crazy, but I have Baylor on upset alert. As upsets go, you’re right, you can’t match Northern Iowa over Kansas, but I think I’ve been more impressed with St. Mary’s overall. No one has had anything close to an answer to Omar Samhan, St. Mary’s center. He has been the most dominant inside player of the tournament by a long shot. At one point Villanova had Samhan in foul trouble early after he’d put them through the meat grinder for the entire first half. Nova went on a little run, and St. Mary’s coach rolled the dice and put Samhan back in. Two possessions, four points, less than 30 seconds played. The crowd subsided and Samhan returned to the bench. It’s been just that easy. Baylor is quick but a bit undersized. I look for Samhan to have a huge game again in Houston, unless Baylor can get him in serious foul trouble early.

Josh: With the first part of the madness over, let’s look toward the future. I had Kansas winning it all. Oops. What’s your pick now for the championship game?

I’m going to go with Syracuse and Kentucky. Both have been playing solid games, and seem to be on a roll right now.

Kyle: Kentucky has been absolutely dominant in it’s first two games, and I expect that to earn them a match-up with Duke in the Final Four. Then comes the age old question: do you take the amazingly dominant, but incredibly young talent of the Wildcats, or the tournament-tested grizzled veteran wisdom of the Blue Devils? I’m going with Kentucky.

As for the other side of the bracket I’m going to take an upset (which has been a pitifully unsuccessful strategy for me so far this tournament, but why stop now?). I’m taking Ohio State over Syracuse in a close one in the Final Four.

Josh: Well, hopefully we’ll both be closer to our new predictions than our old ones. I’d like to say I’m embarrased by my previous picks, but hey, when over half the country’s brackets were busted by one upset? At least I know I’m not alone. I’m looking forward to catching the Sweet 16 this week, and we’ll (hopefully) be back with better news and unshattered confidence after this next round.

1st Round

Kyle: Alright, alright, let me begin by officially removing my foot from my mouth. So, Maryland drops in the first round of the ACC tourney and still somehow winds up with a 4 seed, WVU takes the Big East after all and still doesn’t get the #1, and as far as I can gather not a single coin thrown at the opposing bench from the WVU section. I make no apologies for false predictions–I just blame reality for not pulling through for me.

That said, tell me Josh, which region do you think could be the toughest?

Josh: My motto for all of my NFL picks is the same as the great Gregg Easterbrook at ESPN: All Predictions Wrong, or Your Money Back. That should probably be the Tipping Glass mantra. I’ll tell you who got a great deal in all this: Syracuse. I know college students travel all over the country to see their team play, but Buffalo is only a few hours away from Syracuse, so expect those games to shake the roof off the HSBC Arena. As for the toughest region, it’s gotta be the Midwest. Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland…should I go on?

Kyle: Yeah, the Midwest is absolutely brutal. Congratulations, Kansas, for all of your hard work this season–finishing with a resume that dominates every other team in the field–you have earned the top spot in the most difficult bracket I have ever seen in the tournament…honestly. When I was watching the selection show I was excited when I saw that Maryland landed the #4. Then I saw that our 2nd round game would likely be vs. Michigan St. Then I saw that Georgetown, Tennessee, Ohio State, OK State, and oh yeah, Kansas was in our region. I wasn’t excited anymore. It is going to take a monumental effort for any of the above teams to make it through that bracket. The scary thing is, they are all capable.

Josh: Ok enough with the high seeds. What teams do you see the most potential to bust brackets all over the country?

Kyle: I think Tennessee at a #6 seed is extremely dangerous. The fact that they wound up at a 6 is a crime. The big question will be can they get by Georgetown. That one is a coin flip for me, but I think whoever takes that one will snipe Ohio State in the following round. As for the bracket busters, it all comes down to how the brackets line up, and I say the South and West set up pretty nicely for Cinderellas.

I’ll be watching #7 Richmond and #13 Sienna in the South. I would definitely say this is the weakest bracket overall, which makes me want to drive to Durham and puke on Cameron Indoor. How the fourth #1 seed ends up with the easiest road in the tourney baffles me.

As for the West, keep your eye on #12 UTEP. This pick has become a bit too popular to make me comfortable with it, but they are a strong team and potentially their toughest match up in the first two rounds is a Vanderbilt team that has not been impressive lately.

Who are you picking for your 12/5 upset?

Josh: I hate picking 12/5s…But if I had to, it would be UTEP. However, I think the biggest “upset” will be Sienna over Purdue. Remember what I said last time about a team having one star player who takes over the tournament? That was Robbie Hummel, who was lost to an ACL tear in February. Look at the 69-42 whipping by Minnesota in the Big Ten Semifinals as evidence. As for any other bottom dwellers? I recently read that a #3 seed or higher hasn’t lost in the first round since 2006. With the strength at the top, I can’t see that trend turning around this year.

History means a lot in these tournaments, but I still love my ex-girlfriend’s approach of filling out her bracket based on the uniform colors and mascots. No matter how much research I’d do beforehand, she ends up beating me. That’s how you fill out your bracket, right Kyle?

Kyle: True, history does mean a lot, but as they say on Wall Street, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” So maybe, just maybe, your statistical fortitude will outmatch your ex-gf’s uniform critiques this year, and all will be right with the world. If you looked at the results of my brackets from the last two years, you might think that the uniform index would be a more sound approach than whatever I’ve used. I just barely edged out a victory over my wife’s bracket last year. She is also a fan of the uniform index. The NCAA tournament, for whatever reason, is the great sports knowledge equalizer. The more you know, the more chance you have to over-think it. I tried not to think about it at all this year. Filled out my bracket in about 90 seconds and named it “Gary Williams’ Sweating Zoo.” It is my grand experiment. I am currently in first place, and I expect that to hold true at least until Thursday morning. Let the games begin!

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Kyle: And so it begins… Productivity in workplaces around the country takes a nosedive, brackets are filled out and busted, Cinderella’s are crowned and spoiled, pride is tested, trash is talked, and unlike NCAA football, a true champion is decided on the playing surface. It is March Madness, and it is the best championship format in sports as far as I’m concerned. So check your work browser for page restrictions, and keep your trigger-finger on the “boss button.” It’s tourney time baby.

Let’s talk seeding. Josh, who do you have as your number ones?

Josh: This is definitely one of my favorite sporting events of the year. Any time you have an enormous single-elimination tournament you’re in for some amazing upsets, triple-OT heartbreakers, and buzzer-beaters. Let’s cut to the chase. Kansas will always have a place in my memory with an amazing overtime winner that went past midnight a few years ago to reach the Final Four. They’re my pick to win it all. As for the other number one seeds, I’ll say Syracuse, Duke, and Kentucky with possibly West Virginia being a surprise.

Kyle: Going with the Cuse, eh? I totally would have been with you up until I saw them fall so flat in their first game of the Big East tourney against Georgetown, but I think that only lends itself to the strength of the conference, and for that I guess I’ll concede and agree. They probably will still hold on to the #1, but that will knock them down to the final #1, and stick them in a tough bracket. You can’t say enough about the depth and strength of the Big East this year. When a two-game buy in the conference tournament earns you a first game vs. #22 Georgetown, you know you’ve got a strong conference there. I agree with your other #1’s too, with Kansas as the #1 overall. I don’t think there will be a lot of debate over those slots this year. I highly doubt WVU will make a run at it though. I haven’t been all that impressed with what I’ve seen of them, honestly. The only way I see them sneeking into a #1 is if they win the Big East tourney. And I’m not sure their fans will come with enough quarters in their pockets to make that happen.

What happened to the ACC this year?

Josh: Maybe all that snow the East Coast got slammed with in February had an effect on them? I still think Duke can be a force, but I don’t see anyone in the ACC being an actual contender. And Michael Jordon would be rolling in his grave (if he was dead…) at how his Alma Matter has faired this year.

When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, a lot of times it only takes one guy to take over a team and lead them on a hot streak. We saw it with Carmelo Anthony a few years ago. He took most of the year to find his stride, but once the tourney hit, he led Syracuse to the championship and was on his way to the NBA. If you had to pick, who do you think will be the MVP this year?

Kyle: No doubt, Roy Williams and Carolina should be ashamed of themselves this year. Full disclosure: I graduated from Maryland and live in the heart of ACC country in Raleigh (Surrounded by Duke, Carolina, and NC State–God help me). But I have to say, there has been an eerie silence in this normally ACC-centric town this year. Pretty weak showing overall.

That said, I’m going to be a homer here, and talk up my Alma Mater. I think Maryland has a real shot to take it deep this year. With a good showing in the ACC tourney, the Terps could earn themselves as high as a 3 or 4 seed, and in the right bracket that might just give them a window to bust past the sweet 16. Beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess. If (and I do mean if) they make it deep, Greivis Vasquez could be a contender. There are few players in the tourney who mean as much to their team as he does, and traditionally teams with a strong scorer like Vasquez fare well in the tourney. Fear the turtle.

OK, back to objectivity now. More than likely, the MVP could be between two senior leaders (again depending on who goes deep) Sherron Collins of Kansas, and Scottie Reynolds of Villanova. Who do you have?

Josh: Hands down, John Wall from Kentucky. The Freshman Phenom and everyone else in that organization knew he’d be one-and-done in the NCAA before getting picked up in the pros, so this is their best shot at a title before he moves on to mansions and shoe endorsements. I think Kentucky is going to be the main challenger to Kansas, and he’s the biggest reason why.

Kyle: You’ve definitely got a point with Wall. I’ve tried this whole time not to even mention the word Kentucky, but there you have it, you baited me into it. I guess I just feel like they represent too much of what’s wrong with college basketball, and not much of what’s right about it.

But that’s the beauty of the NCAA tournament. Each year, hidden amid a 64-team bracket you’ll find teams you love to hate, and you’ll learn to love teams you’d never even heard of. There will be no shortage of storylines, drama, and blood-pressure-rocketing action. So hold onto your sneakers. We’ll be back after the selection show.

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