The Tipping Glass » nfl

The long, dramatic ratings death of ‘man day’

Kyle — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 20:55:03 +0000

Whatever happened to man day? What happened to that enviable Saturday late each April, when the weather warms, and the sun coaxes you into shorts and a T-shirt. When you and the boys head out to the grocery store to round up as much cheap beer and cheaper shrink-wrapped meat as you can fit in the cart. Where you get together with all those you loved to waste time with, and waste away the day watching the most unexciting, dry sports broadcast, that no true football fan can miss. Whatever happened to that?

It’s ironic, really, that booming broadcast ratings actually killed ‘man day,’ and the NFL Draft could become the victim of its own puzzling popularity this year. Sadly, it will take ‘man day’ down with it. This year, the NFL Draft moves to prime-time in NYC (you’ve probably heard Rihanna singing about it on the ESPN promo), and first round coverage moves to Thursday night. Thursday? Just like that, the all-day man tradition that was Draft Saturday is no more.

Why is it that we love the NFL Draft so much? Do we? Or are we just fooled into it? Each year, when all of the pageantry of the Big Dance fades into obscurity, and the Masters champion donning the fabled green jacket slips from front page, we enter a sort of sports vacuum that sucks the life out of the average sports nut. Our Saturdays—filled for months with a steady diet of consistent college action—are suddenly empty. Our Sundays—dominated for so long by the NFL, and held over by March Madness and the Masters—are swiftly vacated.

Of course there are sports options out there. There is baseball, but lets face it, it’s April. There are at least 150-some games still to be played in the MLB regular season in April, and I think most of the players care as much as the casual fan does about what happens that month. The hockey season ends and the playoffs begin, but for most fans the NHL is a fair-weather home team sport. If you don’t have a horse in that race, you aren’t watching. No offense intended—I’m one of those fans. Basketball, I would say, falls into that category too. Either way, hockey and basketball playoffs are terribly drawn out, and span months. The early rounds of both generally don’t draw huge TV ratings. This is evidenced by the fact that they air on Versus and TBS, respectively. I’m generalizing here, of course, but the truth of the matter is, the majority of sports fans are left high and dry this time of year.

It was a fundamental problem for the media outlets that cover the sports industry. What do you publish in the sports dead zone? It was a problem that Sports Illustrated solved with bikinis and body paint; a problem that ESPN solved this year with Tiger Woods; and a problem that the NFL capitalized on years ago by broadcasting the draft.

The NFL Draft traditionally spans the course of one weekend in April, but it manages to create buzz that radiates for months following the Super Bowl, and through the summer. Ratings for the draft have skyrocketed in the past several years, and it now has a media following unlike any other professional event. ESPN has on-staff draft analysts like Mel Kiper Jr. who could literally talk about the draft until their heads swelled and they hyperventilated. It’s a good thing too.

At face value, the NFL draft is the most boring, drab sports event that you could ever draw up on paper. Fifteen minutes of speculative babble, followed by five minutes of analysis on who each team finally selected—rewind and repeat for three days. It is an event tailor-made for next day newspaper coverage, where some poor schmuck reporter would have to sit through eight painful hours of the draft and put it all into one consolidated list for the interested public. But in the age of instantaneous news, and real-time split-second updates, live coverage of the draft has not just succeeded, it has exploded.

The NFL and ESPN are on a hot streak with draft coverage. Each year’s ratings somehow continue to eclipse the previous, and each year the promos and hype grow in kind. College stars become NFL celebrities before they’ve played a professional down, and first round contracts balloon to levels that leave grizzled NFL vets scratching their heads. It is the over-marketed, under-substanced, NFL equivalent of the late-90’s tech stock bubble.

With all of the recent success of the draft, the move to prime-time might seem a logical step, but I fear the NFL is pushing its luck. My question is simple: is it the event or the traditions people create around it that make the draft so popular? The NFL should be familiar with this paradox. Look no further than the Super Bowl. Not all of the 160-something million people who watched the Super Bowl this year were football fans, but they all wound up at some sort of Super Bowl gathering. It’s the tradition, and not necessarily the event, that makes it so popular. In that sense, moving the first round to Thursday, covering the second and third rounds in prime-time Friday, and airing only late-round coverage on Saturday, could backfire.

To me the draft is not a prime-time event to begin with. It is a monotonous yet interesting backdrop to ‘man day.’ The grill, man-time, and the ice-cold beverages fill the dead space of draft day nicely. It’s not a Friday night kind of event (much less, Thursday), it’s the kind of event suited for a long, sunny, lazy Saturday with the guys.

Who knows, maybe the ratings will spike yet again, and the NFL will flex its proud marketing muscles one more time. Hell, I’ll probably still watch begrudgingly. But one thing is for certain, for me the draft will never be the same if this format holds. Commercialized and split up to appease the network execs, it looses its flavor. And on Saturday, I fear the fourth round and all that come after it will be tough to swallow, even if you washed it down with cheap beer and steak.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

The long, dramatic ratings death of ‘man day’

Super Bowl XLIV Recap and 2010 Preview

Joshy C — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 19:25:58 +0000

Josh: Well Taylor, instead of sitting on a beach, or laying out in the sun on my cruise ship, I’m stuck in Pittsburgh because the storm of the century just HAPPENED to hit 12 hours before my flight left. I don’t know what’s worse, missing the cruise, or hearing everyone’s opinion on how I should have flown out early, or met up with them at a later port, or driven to another airport, etc. Like I didn’t do everything I possibly could have to get out of this frozen hell…

Taylor: At least you didn’t throw the game losing interception with 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter. There’s something to be happy about!

Josh: At least I didn’t lose power! My street was snowed in so I couldn’t go anywhere, but thankfully I have awesome friends who felt bad for me and braved the snow to join me in my kick-ass basement home theatre to watch the Super Bowl. For the third year in a row, we were treated to a gem. Not as dramatic as the past two, but there was no doubt we were watching the two best teams duke it out.

Taylor: And let’s not forget who, in the end, was the person who picked the correct Super Bowl champ. Although you do deserve props for correctly predicting the Colts to go to the Super Bowl at the beginning of it all. Great game, my two favorite moments were seeing Tracy Porter’s pick six, and of course all of the camera time Brees and his son received. After a slow first half, this game was exciting from the moment the Saints started the second half with an onside kick.

Josh: What a ballsy move by Sean Payton that was. The announcers all loved it of course, but only because it worked. Had it failed, they would have RIPPED him to shreds for making such a risky call.

Taylor: Let’s talk about next season and our early predictions for Super Bowl XLV. I don’t want to be a homer (I am a huge Pittsburgh sports fan), but a healthy Pittsburgh Steelers look like a logical choice for the AFC. I also see the Colts still in the mix. As for the NFC, I don’t see how you can count the Saints out, but I actually like the Cowboys to finally get their shit together. How about you?

Josh: I don’t know about Pittsburgh. Their offensive line is bad, they have no running game, Casey Hampton is a free agent, the secondary is a mess, Hines Ward isn’t getting younger, Polamalu is always injured…should I go on? The AFC North is getting better and better, while the Steelers might be at that point where they’re gonna have to rebuild a little. They are still a force, but there are too many question marks to pick them for the AFC. I’m thinking out of the box here, but with the way the Titans played under Vince Young in the second half of the season, they might be the team to beat next year. As for the NFC, your guess is as good as mine. I would say the Vikings, but (and I know I’ve said this before) I’m not sure if Favre comes back he can get it done one more time. I think if Atlanta can stay healthy, they’re going to be a force.

Taylor: The lack of a running game in Pittsburgh was due to the playcalling, in my opinion. Plus Mendenhall rushed for over 1,000 yards and is really coming into his own. If Polamalu can stay healthy and they retain Hampton, they’ll look a lot like the team that started 6-2 last year. Love your pick of the Titans. They are really a difficult team to figure out. They’re either amazing or a catastrophe. I refuse to say number 4’s name. I’m sick of him. He should retire and the Vikings should trade for McNabb.

Josh: I’m with you on the McNabb trade. Perfect fit for the Vikings right now, and I think would make the Vikings the favorites.

Well Taylor, it’s been a good season. It’s been fun debating. I’m sure we’ll be back after the draft in April, and again during the 2010 preseason. Until then, Tipping Glass readers, farewell, and do what you can to survive these seven football-less months.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Super Bowl XLIV Recap and 2010 Preview

Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

pratt — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 14:28:18 +0000

Check back each Wednesday with updated banter between Taylor and Josh about how the Big Game is shaping up and who we think will be lifting the Lambardi Trophy on February 7th.

Super Bowl Predictions

Taylor: Well, here we are folks. Just a few days removed from the big game. This is the matchup we all wanted to see, but didn’t believe it would actually happen. Two power-house offenses getting ready for a shootout in Miami, FL. Let’s take a look at what each team has to do in order to raise the Lombardi Sunday night. Let’s start with the Indianapolis Colts.

Josh: Two things before we start. First, on Sunday, I will be watching the Super Bowl on the deck of a cruise ship sailing in the Caribbean. Take a second to be jealous………..Ok.

Second, this is me bragging that my pick to win it all at the beginning of the playoffs is still in it. Let’s take a moment of silence for the Chargers, who bombed out as the 2nd seed against the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

Taylor: *cough* Cowboys *cought* – you’ve got nothing on me!

Josh: Ok on to the Colts. The only thing that really worries me is the fact that Dwight Freeny’s ankle is about to fall off. But besides that, I think we both know who the better team is in this one. Peyton Manning is a surgeon when he has the ball in his hands. My guess is that the Saints defense will have a few wrinkles thrown into their game plan and Manning will start a little slow. But come his third or fourth possession, it’s game over. Not only will Manning be hoisting the Lambardi Trophy, he’ll also have his second Super Bowl MVP.

Taylor: Don’t underestimate this Saints defense. They make big plays when it counts and in each game that they won this year that had at least one fumble recovery. I expect to see the Colts turning the ball over at least 2-3 times. If the Colts can keep from doing that it is an easy win for them. But once this Saints defense frustrates you as they keep laying hits on you like they did to Brett Favre, any QB will get rattled. It will be an interesting chess match between the two for sure.

Josh: The Saints are opportunistic when it comes to capitalizing on the other team’s mistakes, but Peyton Manning won’t make mistakes. That thumb-headed mother f—er can play! The Vikings must have been eating buttered popcorn on the sidelines in the Championship Game with the way they were fumbling. I don’t see the Colts running the ball more than 20 times the whole game. Who needs a running game when you can pass the ball at will?

Taylor: If the Colts can avoid turnovers, the pressure will be at an all-time high on Drew Brees. From the Saints games I’ve watched, Brees tends to start out strong and then die off towards the end of the game. That’s the opposite of the way Peyton and the Colts offense plays. The Saints need to play consistent, high pressure football in order to both keep up with the Colts and to try and get a lead. I also think they’re going to need some help from their special teams to return a punt or kickoff back for a TD in order to get some sort of edge over the Colts.

As Bill Bellicheat always says, “do your job!” That’s what Brees and the Saints need to do. Even just one mistake will give the Colts exactly what they need to put the Saints at bay.

Josh: So who are you picking to win this one, AND who do you think will be the MVP? I’ve already given my prediction, Indy wins with Manning as MVP. Final score: 30-19 Colts.

Taylor: I’m pulling for the Saints to win their first Super Bowl title. MVP goes to Brees. Final score: 35-31 Saints.

Round 3

Josh: Well, our Super Bowl predictions took a little hit over the weekend and looks like we’ll need to do a little revising. My Colts are still in it, but looks like your Chargers choked again in the playoffs. Nobody is happier than the Colts right now, as they have been bounced the past two years by the Chargers. Taylor, what happened?

Taylor: I’m not entirely sure what happened to the Chargers. They had kicking problems, and they just couldn’t get into a rhythm. Perhaps it was a lack of preparation, or maybe they underestimated the Jets. To be honest it looked a lot like one of the many 4th quarter blown leads by the Steelers. The Chargers let a team they were better than stick around for too long. They should have been more aggressive to build a bigger lead. The Chargers weren’t the only ones to choke. How ‘bout them Cowboys?

Josh: All I gotta say about the Cowboys is how mad I get when people say it was Tony Romo’s fault. They put all the blame on him, when his offensive line (5 guys blocking 4 pass rushers most of the time) couldn’t stop Minnesota’s front four. I think there were 6 sacks and 19 QB pressures. When you have less than 2 seconds to throw on EVERY play, there’s nothing a quarterback can do.

But enough with the past. Tell me what you think of the Jets and Colts this weekend? How epic would it be if the Jets won because in week 16 the Colts pulled their starters, thereby allowing the Jets to get in the playoffs to begin with?

Taylor: That really would be epic. The Jets are looking more and more like the 2005 Steelers. They’ve faced adversity time and time again this playoffs. Unfortunately for them, the Colts dismantled the Baltimore D and I’m not convinced things will go down any different. I’d love to see the Colts and Saints advance to the Super Bowl. It would be one of the most exciting games we’ve seen in a long time. How do you see the Vikings and Saints playing out. At the beginning of the playoffs I predicted the Vikings to advance.

Josh: I’m with you on the Colts. The Chargers were not prepared, and made some head-scratching coaching decisions (punting on the 36 yard line, onside kick at the end, etc). The Colts will not make those mistakes. Every team knows exactly what the Colts are going to throw at them, but they’re helpless to stop them. The Colts have won 15 games in a row that meant something, and would have beaten the Jets in week 16 if they had left their starters in the game.

As for Saints and Vikings, to me, it’s a coin flip. I would love for the Saints to advance, because it would be 2 weeks I won’t have to listen to everyone giving Favre the credit for his TEAM’S success. The Vikings pass defense is vulnerable, so I think if Drew Brees can take advantage of that, they can pull it off. I’m also waiting for Favre to turn into the turnover machine that he usually becomes at the end of the season.

Josh’s New Super Bowl Prediction: Colts over Saints

Taylor: I’m with you there, but I like the Saints to get their first Super Bowl title. Saints over Colts. Which probably means this will be Jets vs Vikings.

Round 2

Josh: Well Taylor, looks like we’re both still in the running to have our Super Bowl picks work out, although neither your Chargers or my Colts played over Wild Card Weekend. Was that one of the most boring weekends of football you’ve seen in a while or what? Until the 3rd quarter of the Cardinals/Packers game, I couldn’t stay awake.

Taylor: Agreed, I was really surprised at how many blowouts there were. The last quarter of that Cardinals game, though, was one of the most exciting I’ve seen in awhile. Your Cowboys have me worried, and with a performance like that, Minnesota should be very worried. That’s a big game for us as they are both of our NFC Super Bowl representatives. I’m going to go ahead and assume you are taking the Cowboys in that game. What about the Saints vs. Cardinals? Looks like another shootout.

Josh: Ah yes, this will be the week for bragging rights, as our NFC picks will be facing each other. Fun fact: The Cowboys are the only team in the NFL right now to not have even one player on Injured Reserved. Healthy teams win in January. Another stat that can not be overlooked, however, is the record of the home team in the divisional round. With an extra week to rest up, about 70% of divisional round games have been won by the home team since the 6-team format began. With that said, the only team in the NFC that worries me right now is the Cardinals. Even with their non-existent secondary giving up 45 points, Kurt Warner is a monster pushing 40 years old. The QB argument for the past decade has been Manning vs. Brady, but maybe it should be changed to Manning vs. Warner.

Taylor: Healthy teams most certainly win in January. That’s a huge advantage on their end. And their defense playing out of their mind. I think the reason Warner gets left out of those conversations is because he doesn’t play at this level during the regular season. He seems to save it all for the playoffs. I think the Cardinals have a huge advantage coming into this game. Outside of the game against Green Bay, the Cardinals D was top 5 all season. Not to mention the Saint defense is probably the most injury-plagued unit of all playoff teams. The Saints have looked terrible their last three games and will most likely be out of sync while the Cards are in their stride. My head tells me Cards win while my heart hopes the Saints do. On to the AFC!

Josh: I think the AFC is a lot more clear cut than the NFC. Chargers and Colts in the championship game. The Ravens played awesome against the Patriots last week, and have that awesome three-headed running attack. But the Colts defense is the most underrated in the league, and playing at home on turf will give the advantage to those small, quick defenders. Plus, Flacco threw only 10 times last week. He won’t be able to get away with that against the Colts. As for the Chargers, I think they can not take the Jets’ defense lightly. They have been dominant, and will pose problems for Phillip Rivers. I see this game being pretty tight, and more physical.

Taylor: Completely agree with you. The Jets and Ravens had a good run, but the Chargers and Colts will end up being too much for them. Thanks everyone and stay tuned next week when we update this post again to review our picks and to pick the championship games!

Round 1

Josh: We enter a brand new chapter. How they got here is irrelevant. What they do now will determine their place in history. Jobs will be lost. Heroes will be discovered. Beer will be drank. It’s the NFL Playoffs baby!!!

Taylor: Over the next few weeks we’ll get to analyze coaching decisions on whether or not to rest players in meaningless games, eagerly await the dramatic fall of the Cowboys, and drink even more beer.

Josh: I love the fact that your Steelers and my Bills are not in the playoffs this year. Nobody can claim we’re biased, and people can call us Switzerland because we’re neutral in this affair. Let’s skip the playoff round-by-round predictions and just get to the Super Bowl. Taylor, who will be the last man standing?

Taylor: Just like that, eh? I recommend that you head on over to your favorite Super Bowl betting website and you place your money on the San Diego Chargers. Not only did they enter the playoffs as the hottest team, they are playing a complete football game on both sides of the ball. They have been consistent and are fully capable of competing in a shootout or in a defensive slugfest. What about you?

Josh: Ah, you’re going with the popular pick. I’m pretty sure every beat writer and their step mothers are picking the Chargers to win it all. They are playing awesome right now and seem to have a complete game. I also love Ladanian Tomlinson and really want him to get a Super Bowl ring, and this might be his best chance. However, I like the Colts to win it all. They have an awesome defense this year that nobody seems to recognize, and the soon-to-be MVP starting at Quarterback.

Taylor: So it sounds like neither of us believe the NFC will be taking the crown. Who do you see representing the NFC this year?

Josh: Two weeks ago, I would have said the Eagles. They were flying (no pun intended) on offense and stiff on defense. But after that performance against the Cowboys where they had a chance to lock up the 2nd seed with a victory, I lost my faith that they can even get past the Wild Card round. What is interesting about both conferences is that besides New England, it looks like every game will be played in a dome or warm weather. That bodes well for the fast, offensive, pass-happy teams like the Saints. But my gut is telling me that something happened in Dallas after they pounded the Eagles, and we might be seeing them in Miami this year. So I’m going on a limb here and calling it: Colts over Cowboys.

Taylor: Josh, I’m speechless. The Cowboys? THE COWBOYS? You are aware that Romo is still starting there, right? After a strong week 17 performance, my faith in the Vikings has been restored. Just like the Chargers, they have a complete game. I think the hiccup they had towards the end of the season was just the reality check they needed to be prepared mentally. Chargers over Vikings. Brett Favre retires until August.

Josh: We will have to agree to disagree here. Honestly I think anyone in the NFC can come away with the conference. Tell me one person who thought the Cardinals would make it to the Super Bowl last year, and I’ll call them a liar. The NFC is wide open. Any of those teams can finish on top. Ok let’s get to this weekend. We’ll start with the AFC Wild Card games: Jets at Bengals, and Ravens at Patriots. Give me your predictions, and one sentence why for each game. Go.

Taylor:I think the Jets roll over the Bengals again. The Bengals only managed 79 total yards of offense against them on Sunday, and they now have strong confidence going into this game. And let’s not forget that Carson Palmer did finish 1/11 with an INT. As for the Pats and Ravens, Welker’s injury makes this game much closer than I originally thought it would be. The Ravens have never beaten the Pats, and I don’t expect this game to be any different. Who do you have?

Josh: That was two sentences for each game. Regarding the Jets, I don’t care how they got into the playoffs (beating two teams with nothing to play for), that defense is spectacular and as long as Sanchez doesn’t try to be a hero, they’ll win on the road. I don’t think Brady has ever been one-and-done, so especially because the game is in New England, the Patriots will overcome Welker’s injury and dismantle the Ravens.

I’ll go first for the NFC. The Cowboys will once again beat the Eagles. This is a different team than in the past. Wade Phillips is coaching for his job and will have his guys up to speed as long as they don’t take a trip to Cabo mid-week. I just can’t get over how Philly played so poorly with a bye week and second seed on the line. Their effort in such an important game shows me that they’re not ready to travel down south again for the rematch.

I think last week’s Cardinals vs. Packers game was meaningless, and that Arizona with all those weapons on offense, a decent defense, and above average running game will be too much for the Packers to handle.

Taylor: I will give you the Cowboys game, as I do believe they will finally win their first playoff game since 1996. As for the Cards/Packers I’m going to have to disagree. Boldin is questionable and the Packers offense is clicking on a cylinders. I think their offense will be too much for the Cards to handle, but it will be an exciting shootout.

That’s all for now folks, check back next week when we’ll update this post to review our predictions and pick the next round.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

Quick Hit NFL Thoughts

Joshy C — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:23:40 +0000

Taylor and I will be taking a bye week like the Super Bowl teams, resuming our discussion about who will win the Big Game next Wednesday. To appease our readers in the absence of our normal column, here are some of my non-Super-Bowl random quick hit thoughts on the NFL at this time:

Brett Favre: Will He Retire? First off, let me say, that man is one tough 40-year-old. He was getting drilled on almost every passing play, and even some running plays, but didn’t miss a down. Even after his ankle was crushed, he got it wrapped up and came back in on the next series. After the crap he pulled in his retirement/non-retirement last year, he earned a ton of respect from me by the way he played on Sunday, minus that last interception. After watching Fox cut away to a shot of his wife in the stands every time he got hit, I’m sure if she has her way, he’ll be plowing some fields down south come next September. But my gut tells me that when his bruises heal and he can walk without a limp in the coming months, Favre will decide to come back for one last try at another Super Bowl ring.

Keep Overtime the Way it is! Football pundits everywhere take every opportunity to point out the flaws of the current Sudden Death overtime format. You’ve heard all the arguments already so I won’t rehash them. But here’s a stat that announcers and talk show hosts fail to mention: the team that wins the coin toss in overtime wins 52% of the time, and lose 44% of the time (with the rest being ties). That doesn’t seem so skewed to me. While of course there is an inherent advantage of receiving the ball in overtime, it’s not as overwhelming as the perception. My thoughts on the matter are that if you don’t win the game in regulation, not getting the ball in overtime is a consequence you have to be prepared for. This is not hockey, where you get half a win for just getting to the overtime period.

When it comes to the Vikings/Saints game over the weekend, I feel the argument can be made that BOTH teams deserved to win AND lose. The Vikings outgained the Saints by over 200 yards. But they committed 2 turnovers inside the 10 yard line, and one more at the end of regulation in field goal range. So anyone who blames a coin toss on the Vikings loss should get their facts straight and take an objective look at the other 60 minutes that were played outside of overtime.

Michael Vick is a Puppy Murderer. Vick is owed a huge roster bonus by the Eagles in March and will most likely be looking for a new team when free agency begins. I am a diehard Buffalo Bills fan, and it is well-known that we need a new QB. I make this claim right now: If Michael Vick ever becomes a member of the Buffalo Bills, I will no longer support, root for, or be a fan of the Buffalo Bills. Besides the fact that they would be only doing it to sell tickets and jerseys, there are moral reasons as well.

I love dogs. I don’t own one myself because I know I can’t devote the time and energy needed to training and care. I don’t claim to be an animal rights activist. I believe that any crime committed against a human being is miles worse that a crime committed to an animal. Why do people get so upset when a dog dies in a movie? Because animals are innocent. They are like young children, who can be manipulated and abused easily and cruelly. When it comes to Michael Vick, I can not stand the fact that he is playing football again after the details of his dog-fighting ring came out.

But he did his time in prison, right? If the head of a company or corporation, even with a unique set of skills, did the same thing, would he be welcomed back after his prison sentence was up? This was not a one-time thing. This was a pattern that spanned over five years. The only remorse came from being caught. He would still be doing it if he wasn’t found out. I will never financially support a team that financially supports a person like Michael Vick.

Uncapped Season? If you’re not a football nut, you might not know that there is no agreement between owners and players beginning in March. What that means is teams can spend as much as they want without a ceiling or floor. There are also restrictions on free agency, contract lengths, and other little things. The salary cap not only helps small market teams compete with the larger markets, it forces teams to be creative. You can’t go out and build a fantasy team by throwing money around. You need talent evaluators working around the clock to find inexpensive ways to support the core players on the roster. How much 2011 will affect the competitiveness of the NFL is unknown. Not to concern anyone…but if no agreement is reached by 2012, we will not have an NFL season that year. Owners and the Players Union better get their acts in gear or they’ll be facing a very serious fan outrage.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Quick Hit NFL Thoughts

NFL Regular Season Wrap-Up

Joshy C — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:39:41 +0000

With Week 17 in the bag, we now enter a new season, the NFL Playoffs. Check back early and often, as Tipping Glass will be posting often throughout the coming weeks with news, opinions, and predictions during the post-season.

First, a few thoughts on the regular season:

Sitting Starters:

Enough with talk of the NFL Competition Committee doing something about teams resting their starters after locking up their playoff seed. Enough. I’ve read sports writers who are outraged that the Colts, Bengals, Cardinals, Patriots, and Saints would even dream of trying to get healthy before the post-season began. How dare they deny us Manning and give us Painter! Mark Brunnel is still in the league?? Who is Brian Hoyer???

Um…do we forget the 13 hard-fought victories that the Colts and Saints racked up to get here? What are you going to do, take away draft picks because the they didn’t play their starters for the whole game, when they had the #1 seed locked up for weeks? How is that fair? Don’t tell me that the Jets shouldn’t be in the playoffs because they played two teams back-to-back that had nothing to play for. Steelers and Texans fans, maybe you should have won ONE more game this year and you wouldn’t have to rely on situations like that.

The fact is, teams should not be punished for late season white flags. It’s part of the game. I guarantee nobody is going to care come kickoff time on Saturday for the Wild Card games. Win early in the season, and you get the right to decide how to pursue your championship. Period.

Injuries:

I feel bad for Wes Welker. On his 123rd catch, in his 14th game of the year, he makes a cut, and his knee collapses. He put in a lot of effort and hard work to get the Patriots the AFC East crown, and now has to watch them make a Super Bowl run from the recovery room. Tough break kid.

I could mention a few other players who went down yesterday, but Welker illustrates that there is nothing you can do to prevent injuries on the field when your players are in there. While the fans might not like pulling these guys out of the game in meaningless situations, you can’t deny the coaches know what they’re doing. I guarantee Belicheck wishes he could have pulled Welker from the lineup one play early.

The Loveable Losers

Well, we once again talk about a lot of the same teams missing the playoffs, having double-digit losses, and high draft picks again. But I just want to remind everyone that for the 13th year in a row, at least 5 new teams are in the post-season race. Anyone who says halfway through the season that they know how it’ll all end are crazy.

Pittsburgh, sitting pretty at 6-2, follows with a 5 game losing streak, out of the playoffs.

Houston, written off at 5-7, rattles off 4 wins to finish with a winning record.

Cleveland, fighting for a #1 draft pick at 1-11, wins 4 in a row and possibly saves their coach’s job.

The NY Giants and Denver Broncos, 5-0 and 6-0, collapse to 8-8 records.

So when that idiot in the break room at work triumphantly declares that he KNOWS that Pittsburgh is destined to repeat as Champs, and that the Eagles are going to win the NFC East, and that the Titans aren’t going to win a game after starting 0-6…

Well, just read him this section, and look back at the past decade to find similar examples, and tell him to keep his opinion to himself.

And for all the fans of those Loveable Losers, just remember it happens every year. There is always hope that it’ll be a one-year turnaround. Don’t stop believing it could be you.

Next on Tipping Glass:

3 games that were played in week 17 will be repeated in Wild Card Weekend? What it all means.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

NFL Regular Season Wrap-Up

Week 16 NFL Preview Review

Joshy C — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 01:32:38 +0000

Each Monday (or in this case, Tuesday), I will review the preview I made before the weekend’s games. I will own up to any bad predictions, and brag about my foresight, in hindsight.

Seattle Seahawks (5-10) at Green Bay Packers (10-5)

Results: Green Bay 48, Seattle 10

What Happened: After a last second loss to the Steelers last week, the Packers were ready to seal up that playoff spot and did it convincingly. Their defense picked off 4 passes and their offense scored 5 Touchdowns on the ground to put this game away before halftime.

My Prediction: Packers win in a landslide.

Foresight in Hindsight: This game could probably define the word phrase “landslide victory”.

Oakland Raiders (5-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-11)

Results: Cleveland 23, Oakland 9

What Happened: Who is Jerome Harrison, and where has he been all year? Over 430 rushing yards the past two games, I think the Browns have their starting running back locked up for next year. Now all they need is a QB, receivers, TE, and defense, and they’ll be set.

My Prediction: Browns win easy.

Foresight in Hindsight: Their third straight victory. The Browns. Three straight. Read that again. Yep.

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)

Results: Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 20

What Happened: Another slugfest between these two teams. Every time they meet I feel like someone wins in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. The Ravens shot themselves in the feet with all the stupid penalties. Every game, it comes down to who made ONE more play than the other team. Why negate that with personal fouls??

My Prediction: Ravens win a close one.

Foresight in Hindsight: Next time, I’m just gonna flip a coin to pick who wins between these guys.

New York Jets (8-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-1)

Results: New York 29, Indianapolis 15

What Happened: The Colts pulled their starters in the 3rd quarter while holding a 5 point lead. The Jets went on to score 19 unanswered points to put themselves in a win-and-you’re-in scenario next week.

My Prediction: Colts win a close game.

Foresight in Hindsight: Well, it was a close game before the starters left. The home crowd was NOT happy, and I don’t blame them. Caldwell accepted defeat in front of his paying customers and the Jets got a gift-wrapped win to put them in position to make a post-season run.

Denver Broncos (8-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)

Results: Philadelphia 30, Denver 27

What Happened: Philly kicked a game winning FG in the 4th quarter, sealing up a playoff spot.

My Prediction: Broncos lose again.

Foresight in Hindsight: Hey Broncos. You had a playoff spot locked up for 16 straight weeks. You were 6-0. What gives?? Did you all of a sudden realize you weren’t a good team anymore? I just don’t understand this type of collapse. Maybe you and the Giants can get together and talk about what caused your seasons to go down the tubes.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Week 16 NFL Preview Review

Week 16 NFL Preview

Joshy C — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 01:41:55 +0000

Each Friday I will preview a few games to take place over the weekend. I will borrow a phrase from Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN: “All predictions wrong or your money back.”

Seattle Seahawks (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (9-5)

After Green Bay’s devestating loss last week, they won’t go down lightly at home against the lowly Seahawks. Seattle was dismantled by Tampa Bay last week, and will be looking at a top 8 pick in the draft next year. The Packers need this one to lock up one of the last two wild card spots. Watch them take care of business, and for Aaron Rodgers to be sitting on the bench in the 4th quarter while the second stringers get some work.

Prediction: Packers in a landslide

Oakland Raiders (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (3-11)

Every player and coach on the Browns is now auditioning for their jobs next year as Mike Holmgren signed on as the new czar/overseer. They’ve won two in a row, and now that they have a winning taste in their mouth, they’re not going to want to lose it. I don’t know who is starting at QB for the Raiders, but who really cares? Actually…that same statement goes for the Browns as well.

Prediction: Browns win easy.

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

This is not an easy game to pick. Both teams are playing for their playoff lives. But the only one that controls their own destiny is the Ravens. The first meeting between these teams ended in overtime. I see this being a close one again. The Steelers had lady luck on their side when they beat the Packers on the last play last week, but I don’t think 1-5 in their last 6 games is a fluke. They’ve taken a major step back, and the Ravens will prove too much again. This will be a slug fest.

Prediction: Ravens win a very close game.

New York Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis Colts (14-0)

No matter what they say in the media, the Colts players want to go undefeated. There will be a new Super Bowl champion every year that the NFL exists. But the chance to lay claim to a 19-0 undefeated world championship comes along once in a career. A lot of people will say that the Colts should get the monkey off their backs to get a loss out of the way before playing games that really matter. I call bullshit on that one. WIN OUT!!!

Prediction: A back and forth game ends with the Colts one game from an undefeated regular season.

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)

Oh the Broncos. Dallas gets the “December Colapse” title in the media, but I still think Denver takes the cake. 2-6 in their last 8 games, and a last minute loss to the Raiders last week makes me think there is nothing special about this team and that they should let one of the other more deserving teams make the playoffs. The Eagles are once again in control of the NFC East and will likely claim another division title.

Prediction: Broncos get their seventh loss in the last nine games.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Week 16 NFL Preview

Week 15 NFL Preview Review

Joshy C — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 19:44:12 +0000

Each Monday, I will review the preview I made before the weekend’s games. I will own up to any bad predictions, and brag about my foresight, in hindsight.

New England Patriots (9-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Results: New England 17, Buffalo 10

What Happened: The Patriots scored twice because of huge pass interference penalties. Besides that, the Buffalo defense made Brady look very average and were in the game until the end. Their disappointment of a First Round pick Aaron Maybin got a little too excited on the final onside kick. It was recovered by Buffalo with 3 minutes to go, down by 7 points, but Maybe was offsides. Way to earn those millions of dollars, Aaron.

My Prediction: Patriots win in a landslide.

Foresight in Hindsight: A close game, but the results were the same as the past 12 times these teams have met. Even when the Patriots have an off day, the Bills play worse.

Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-11)

Results: Cleveland 41, Kansas City 34

What Happened: Josh Cribbs broke the NFL record for most kickoff returns for touchdowns in a career, then tacked on one more for good measure. After the first 103 yarder, why did the Chiefs continue to kick to him? That’s why they’re the Chiefs.

My Prediction: Browns win easy.

Foresight in Hindsight: When you get 14 points in the 14 seconds it took to return two kicks? Yeah, he made your team’s job a lot easier.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) at San Diego Chargers (11-3)

Results: Cincinnati 24, San Diego 27

What Happened: Down by 11 points, the Bengals climbed back to tie the game up in the 4th quarter. But the Chargers continued their December dominance over an emotionally drained Bengals team by booting a 52 yarder with no time left.

My Prediction: Bengals win a close one.

Foresight in Hindsight: I had the teams mixed up. The Bengals couldn’t finish this game, but I don’t think anyone could blame them. They’ll win at least one of the final games to clinch the division, but do they have the strength to make a post-season run?

Green Bay Packers (9-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Results: Green Bay 36, Pittsburgh 37

What Happened: Roethlisburger threw for over 500 yards, but needed the final play to put this game away. Steelers nation let out a huge sigh of relief to avoid being the first defending Super Bowl champion to lose 6 in a row.

My Prediction: Packers win a close game.

Foresight in Hindsight: When the clock struck 0:00, Green Bay had a 6 point lead. So I was right, right? Unfortunately Big Ben threw a bullet to the side of the end zone with no time left. A lot of things happened this weekend to help the Steelers’ playoff chances. They can still sneak in if they win out and get some help.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Week 15 NFL Preview Review

Week 15 NFL Preview

Joshy C — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:51:35 +0000

Each Friday I will preview a few games to take place over the weekend. I will borrow a phrase from Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN: “All predictions wrong or your money back.”

But first, a few words on Thursday night’s game:

Indianapolis Colts (14-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7)

9 lead changes later, the Colts came out on top to extend their perfect season. The Jags had everything to play for, and couldn’t get it done on two final drives. It ended with a Colts interception. Was it just me, or do the Colts just make it look easy? They are always in control of the game, no matter what the score. We’ve said this before about them during the regular season, but man, I just can’t see anyone taking them down in the playoffs. Stay healthy, Colts, and you’ll have another ring to show for it.

Now on to the Preview:

New England Patriots (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

The Patriots have only won once away from Gillette Stadium this season. Tom Brady is banged up. Their secondary is weak. Randy Moss is being torn apart by the media. Adalius Thomas is a healthy scratch.

Who cares??? I see this games going the same way as when the Patriots played the Titans earlier in the year. Massive blowout in the first half. This game won’t even be close. Perry Fewell might have a future in the NFL as a head coach, but he’s no match for Bilicheck’s evil genius.

Prediction: Patriots in a landslide.

Cleveland Browns (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-10)

Once again, we have a week that features two bottom-dwellers. The Browns are going to be riding high after their dominant win against the Steelers last Thursday. Those few extra days of rest should do them good, provided they weren’t out celebrating all week. I have a gut feeling that we’re gonna see the Browns rattle off a few victories in the coming weeks. If they can rush Matt Cassel like they did Rothelisburger, they’ll easily win this one.

Prediction: Browns win easy.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at San Diego Chargers (10-3)

After their first three losses this year, the Bengals came back to win big. This game will determine which of these two teams receive a first round bye, which I believe is a huge bonus to any team ready to make a Super Bowl push. With that said, I don’t know how the Bengals will respond with the unfortunate, premature death of one of their teammates on the back of their minds. They face adversity earlier in the year after the death of their defensive coordinator’s wife. But this is different. I think that they will answer the call and win this one for Chris Henry.

Prediction: Bengals win a close one.

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)

Wait…The Steelers can’t POSSIBLY lose 6 games in a row, can they? Mike McCarthy comes back to his home town and won’t disappoint. The Packers have been playing solid football lately, and seem to have fixed their offensive lines’ sack problems. The Steelers pass rush will get through a few times, but the Packers’ defense will be the story of the game. Look for the Steelers to keep it close through the first 3 quarters, but the Packers will finish this game with a clinched wild card spot.

Prediction: Packers win a close game.

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Week 15 NFL Preview

Should the Colts Coast and the Saints Sleep?

Joshy C — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:01:37 +0000

Josh: I know, cheesy title, but I’m all about alliterations today. Everywhere you turn in the NFL, the discussion inevitably returns to whether or not the Colts and Saints should rest their starters, or fight for the immortality that will come from an undefeated season. First off, the Saints haven’t clinched the number one seed yet, so they still need to win for at least another week to make sure the Super Bowl goes through New Orleans. But the Colts have the AFC wrapped up will not play a meaningful game until mid-January.

Taylor: It’s actually a really important question and you have to believe the Colts and Saints’ coaching staff has gone back and forth on the subject matter. Josh and I are going to take a look at the pros and cons as to whether or not they should rest their starters. Let’s start by taking a look at the Indianapolis Colts.

Josh: We’ve been here before with the Colts. In 2006, they started 13-0, finished the regular season 14-2, and were one-and-done in the playoffs. They have a pattern over the past decade of getting knocked out before the Big One, despite having the most regular season wins out of any team in that time period. But has their biggest accomplishment actually been their biggest deterent from multiple Super Bowl rings this season?

Taylor: I absolutely think it has. If you look at the past Super Bowl winners, the one thing they all had going into the playoffs was momentum. If the Colts were to make this game against Jacksonville their last effort for the regular season, how are they going to stop a team like the San Diego chargers who not only have the Colts’ number, but they also have been on fire for the last 7 or 8 weeks. I guess one question you might ask is, what did the Colts do right when they won the Super Bowl in 2007?

Josh: They had a healthy team heading into the playoffs. They didn’t get a bye-week that year, and stole a huge 4th quarter lead against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. I truely believe every team is a few injuries away from watching the playoffs from home. Look at the Steelers this year. Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu get hurt, and they go from Champs to Chumps.

Taylor: Well then are you saying it is better for them to rest their starters to ensure everyone is healthy? On offense the Colts biggest concern should be keeping Addai healthy. Outside of that, they have enough depth in each position to keep them in the rest of the season without concern. Peyton has never missed a game. Isn’t it also just as important to knock teams out of the playoffs who are starting to surge? They play two teams in the hunt over the next two weeks. The Jags tonight and the Jets next Sunday.

Josh: That’s something that bothered me in 2006. The fact that they let up and rested their starters meant that other teams who were fighting until the end had an easier path to the postseason, and others were left helpless. You can’t use that as a good argument though, because the Colts did earn the right to rest their players. As a fan, I want to see a 18-0 Colts team play a 18-0 Saints team for the right to call themselves the greatest team of all time. The goal of every team is to win the Super Bowl, so an undefeated season is a secondary concern. Do you think if the Colts hadn’t rested their starters in the past, they would have more rings?

Taylor: I absolutely do. If they rest their players after this week’s game they will have almost a month off. This is do or die football. Wouldn’t you rather be still in your stride than trying to get back into it? I think the Saints are lucky since Minnesota is forcing them to stay competitive.

Josh: The fact is that these next three games don’t matter, period. The Colts are the #1 seed no matter what. Every time these guys step on the field, they risk their season. Do the Colts pretend that these games mean something and fight to the end? Is momentum worth the risk of injury to Dallas Clark, or Addai, or Reggie Wayne? I don’t think it is. If the Colts are good enough right now to win throughout the playoffs, then they will be good enough in a month to win throughout the playoffs.

Taylor: That’s a good point, but don’t you think that the Week 15 Indianapolis Colts are better than the Week 1 Indianapolis Colts? In a way they’d revert back to week one form as this long of a gap is no different than the preseason.

Josh: I think a healthy, rested, fresh Week 15 Indianapolis Colts are better than the original Week 1 Colts, yes. And even if they did treat this like the preseason, look at what they did after this year’s preseason. 13 games in a row? I think they’d take that into the playoffs.

With that said, as a football fan, of course I want the Colts to go undefeated. I want them to play hard, and play spoiler throughout the final 3 weeks, and carry that into the playoffs. But if I was running that team, I would know that the goal is Super Bowl, and health is the best way to achieve it.

Taylor: Let’s move on to the Saints. The Colts are far more experienced in both this type of situation and in the playoffs as a whole. Drew Brees has never made it to the Super Bowl and has only won one playoff game. Should they approach this differently than the Colts?

Josh: The Saints have the Vikings right on their tail. I’m not sure of the tie-breakers, but the Saints will need at least one, and most likely two games to keep ahead of them for the #1 seed. Again, as a fan, I want to see the Saints and Colts win out and play hard to the end. But the Saints have been dealing with injuries on their defense, and will need all the healthy players they can to get past the firepower offenses in the NFC like the Eagles and Vikings. And they’ll need everyone healthy on offense to match the points of them as well. Can you name Drew Brees’ backup? I didn’t think so.

Taylor: Actually I can, and only because I can’t believe he is still in the league: Mark Brunell. I think the Saints are a much better candidate for resting their team. As you said, their defense has been horribly plagued by the injury bug, as have their running backs. I think the Saints more than any other team have depth, but that isn’t something you want to be forced to rely on in the playoffs. Final verdict on Saints: Rest. Colts: Rest..

Josh: Agreed. But I’m still dreaming of two 18-0 teams in the Super Bowl. Who would Mercury Morris root for?

This is an awesome post from The Tipping Glass

Should the Colts Coast and the Saints Sleep?